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Question 1: (23 marks total)
a. Plot world wheat prices from Jan 2015 to July 2022. (1)
b. On the same graph, plot inflation rates over the same period and on the secondary axis
(view example on the excel file). (1)
c. What is the relationship between the two? Run a regression to show the relationship
statistically, wheat prices as the independent variable and inflation as the dependent
variable. (2)
d. State the month when inflation really begins to take off (increase)? (1)
e. Now re-run the regression in two parts, first for the period from Jan 2015 to Dec 2020;
second from Jan 2021 to July 2022. Explain your results. (3)
Background Information:
Use Canada as an example of a wheat producer/exporter. Note that the production of
wheat each year requires farmers to decide in March-April which crops they will grow. If
they wish to produce more wheat, they will allocate more of their land to wheat and
away from the alternative crop they would otherwise be growing (e.g., canola). In
anticipating their wheat production, they will have to acquire adequate supplies of
fertilizer and other farm inputs, typically making purchases also in those early spring
months. The wheat price will be determined by the world supply and demand. Some
supplies of wheat will be determined even earlier if there is planting of winter wheat or
an earlier growing season.
f. Describe the process by which inflation will affect Canadian wheat prices. (3)
More information:
Suppose inflation in wheat producing countries starts to rise in (Canadian data follows)
July 2021, jumping from 3.1 to 3.7%, and only begins to rise seriously in Jan 2022
(monthly inflation hits 5%), rising each month to June (8.1%). By planting decision time,
inflation is running at annual rate of 5-7% (year over year, calculated each month.
g. How will that affect wheat prices over the period from January to July 2022 that we
have so far observed? Putting this differently, if there was no significant inflation in
2021 through to date, how would this have changed the observed rise in global wheat
prices? (3)
h. How would the actual observed inflation affect world wheat prices looking forward (in
the future), ignoring other factors in the wheat market such as the war in Ukraine? (2)
i. Assume that fertilizer input costs account for 30% of total revenues. If fertilizer costs
doubled, and if wheat prices increased by 50%, we wish to calculate the net effect on
profits and planting decisions (these are roughly realistic numbers for spring 2022).
i. Calculate the effect on net profit or earnings before taxes for “Wheat-Hard
Red Spring” (The relevant financial data can be found on Page 4 of the
following document: https://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/farmmanagement/production-economics/pubs/cop-crop-production.pdf) (3)
ii. What is the effect on farmer’s planting decision from this change in profit?
i.e., will they increase wheat plantings, given both an increase in fertilizer
costs and an increase in the wheat price? (2)
j. Now show how this example of the long term effect of inflation will likely affect wheat
prices (for late 2022, 2023)? (2)
Question 2: (9 marks total)
a. Plot the relationship between agricultural commodity prices (Farm Product Price Index)
& retail food prices (Food CPI). Do this for Jan 2020 through to July 2022. (1)
i. What is the relationship between the two? (1)
b. Conduct regressions and interpret the corresponding R Squared values
i. Food CPI in period t-1 (Independent variable) on Farm Product Price Index in
period t (Dependent variable). (2)
ii. Farm Product Price Index in period t-1 (Independent variable) on Food CPI in
period t (Dependent variable). (2)
iii. Contemporaneous effects, Farm Product Price Index in period t
(Independent variable) on Food CPI in period t (Dependent variable). (1)
c. Give some economic arguments for why one direction of causation would be more
plausible than another (comparing i. with ii.)?

Sample Solution

Sample Answer

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Concerning specific contextual analysis, two significant correspondence standards, correspondence channel determination and commotion are self-evident. This course presents the standards of correspondence, the act of general correspondence, and different speculations to all the more likely comprehend the correspondence exchanges experienced in regular daily existence. The standards and practices that you learn in this course give the premise to additionally learning and correspondence.

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It is a unique cycle that oversees force, closeness and limits, cohesiveness and flexibility of route frameworks, and makes pictures, topics, stories, ceremonies, rules, jobs, making implications, making a feeling of family life An intelligent cycle that makes a model. This model has passed ages. Notwithstanding the view as a family and family automatic framework, one of the greatest exploration establishments in between family correspondence centers around a family correspondence model. Family correspondence model (FCP) hypothesis clarifies why families impart in their own specific manner dependent on one another ‘s psychological direction. Early FCP research established in media research is keen on how families handle broad communications data. Family correspondence was perceived as an exceptional scholastic exploration field by the National Communications Association in 1989. Family correspondence researchers were at first impacted by family research, social brain science, and relational hypothesis, before long built up the hypothesis and began research in a family framework zeroed in on a significant job. Until 2001, the primary issue of the Family Communication Research Journal, Family Communication Magazine, was given. Family correspondence is more than the field of correspondence analysts in the family. Examination on family correspondence is normally done by individuals in brain science, humanism, and family research, to give some examples models. However, as the popular family correspondence researcher Leslie Baxter stated, it is the focal point of this intelligent semantic creation measure making the grant of family correspondence special. In the field of in-home correspondence, correspondence is normally not founded on autonomous messages from one sender to one beneficiary, yet dependent on the dynamic interdependency of data shared among families It is conceptualized. The focal point of this methodology is on the shared trait of semantic development inside family frameworks. As such, producing doesn’t happen in vacuum, however it happens in a wide scope of ages and social exchange.

Standards are rules end up being followed when performing work to agree to a given objective. Hierarchical achievement relies significantly upon compelling correspondence. So as to successfully impart, it is important to follow a few standards and rules. Coming up next are rules to guarantee powerful correspondence: clearness: lucidity of data is a significant guideline of correspondence. For beneficiaries to know the message plainly, the messages ought to be sorted out in a basic language. To guarantee that beneficiaries can without much of a stretch comprehend the importance of the message, the sender needs to impart unmistakably and unhesitatingly so the beneficiary can plainly and unquestionably comprehend the data.>

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