Disruptive technology

Answer

Disruptive technology refers to technological developments that change the standard way of carrying out activities. Over the years, there have been many developments that disrupt established sectors in the world. One of these has been artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the development of intelligent and insightful machines particularly those that are computer enabled. Usually, AI machines mimic and execute human behaviors independently. Some recent developments in AI have seen a production of machines, specifically, robots that can respond to humans and carry out other duties independently without human help or input. Therefore, it is apparent that AI is continuing to have a significant effect in the world as science and technology continuously evolves to improve on the ability of these machines. Currently, some machines can think rationally, interpret occurrences and changes in stimuli in real time and can behave intelligently. Consequently, the uses of machines that are AI enabled are vast as they are finding uses both at home and in industry. However, even as the world continues to embrace the endless opportunities of technology including the concept of artificial intelligence, it is apparent that AI is having both negative and positive influence on standard living practices. Moreover, AI will continue to have an impact in the future especially in industries such as healthcare, manufacturing, customer services, and home maintenance. Ideally, some of the achievements of AI in today’s settings are a result of various experiments in the past. Despite this, it is clear that AI is a disruptive technology as it is leading to a change in operations in various sectors. Based on these influences and concepts relating to AI, it is paramount to describe a historical overview of AI, evaluate its degree of disruption, and develop an understating of AI from a Canadian’s perspective.

1. Historical Perspective

Artificial intelligence is often associated with humble origins among the Romans and Greeks in the 19^th century. Primarily, the attribution is based on the historical drawings of these communities in which there are mechanical men and robots. In those early days especially in the 19^th century, there were efforts to establish artificial intelligence by significant individuals like Charles Babbage who made a special purpose machine for use in computing number. According to Flasiński, Babbage is regarded as the first individuals ever to have an attempt at AI[1]. However, his machine could not be programmed as he lacked the essential expertise to do so. Ada King is regarded as the first female individual to have a go at AI as she made a program for Babbage’s machine. On the other hand, the term “artificial intelligence’ is relatively new after having been created in 1956 by John McCarthy.

Early Age

Primary research towards the realization AI began in 1956 in a Dartmouth Conference after receiving the official title of artificial intelligence. The individuals present at the conference went on to become leaders of AI research and the promise that the AI offered made British and the US governments to invest significantly in the research in the early stages. However, by 1970, no significant AI project had been realized[2]. Therefore, leading governments regarding investment in AI felt that their funds were being wasted on unrealistic ambitious projects. Therefore, some governments, especially the US and Britain who were initially the front-runners, abolished their funding of AI.

Despite the withdrawal of most governments funding the artificial intelligence based research programs in the 1970s, the period between 1956 to 1974 is considered the golden age of AI is it formed the background of modern-day AI machines. In this regard, some of the significant programs that were formed to enhance AI research and activities included the Advanced Research Projects Agency, which cantered on providing research institutions with grants to study AI. Institutions such as the Michigan Institute of Technology (MIT) gained mass prominence due to their involvement in AI research. It was during that period that the computer mouse was invented by Doug Engelbart[3].

AI winters

The ‘winters of AI’ period refers to the time when there was no significant development in the field of artificial intelligence. The first period was between 1974 and 1980 when most governments funding AI programs felt that their funds were being misused on projects that could hardly be realized. However, aside from funding, other factors that contributed to a dry spell in AI growth in the late 1970s is the limited capability of computers at that time[4]. In this regard, most computers did not have enough memory or the ideal processing speed to create or support other machines. Therefore, only small machines that had little influence on the external environment could be made. Moreover, another hindrance to the growth of AI during the period was limited technology and expertise. Ideally, the technology to teach the existing database on capturing and learning world-specific information was lacking.

Rekindle: Reviving AI

Between 1980 and 1987, the field of AI experiences a significant revival from the slum it had experienced in past years. The revival focused on gathering knowledge about AI with little focus on mechanical or physical development. Consequently, the first AI program called ‘expert system’ was developed. Ideally, the system used logical functions to solve problems, answer questions, and make decisions. In the period, Richard Greenblatt, whom in the 1960s had created the chess program for MIT contributed significantly in developing the Lisp Machines. The machines acted as single user workstation for commercial purposes. The language and software used in these machines were called Lisp and is regarded as the second –oldest programing language that is high level[5]. The invention of the Lisp Machines was significant during this stage as it went on to encourage the development of most modern day machines such as windowing systems, computer graphic rendering, computer mice, and laser printing. Primarily, Pan, states that the focus of AI in the 1980s was to construct and improve knowledge-based systems[6].

The later stages of the 1980s saw most governments that had withdrawn forum AI funding come back. Primarily, the Japanese government was the first one with an $850 million budgetary allocation for the development of a 5th generation computer project. The project aimed to develop a machine that could interpret languages, write programs, act like humans, and interpret pictures. The move by Japan was viewed as competition, and other nations responded fiercely. Firstly, the British government made the move in which 350 million pounds was allocated to the Alvey Project. The response from the US involved the formation of Micro electric and Computer Technology Corporation (MCC). However, contrary to expectation, most of these projects were abandoned between 1987 and 1993 as most of them failed to achieve their objectives (Theckedath, 2018). Once again, AI growth experienced a zero growth period. 

However, at the decline of government-funded AI projects, Apple and IBM began marketing and selling their personal computers, which had, low pricing and appeared faster as compared to the Lisp machines. Consequently, many buyers opted for apple and IBM computers as Lisp machines’ sales dropped. As a result, the lisp machine industry collapsed. From 1993 to today, there has been a significant development in AI. For instance, in 2005, a robot developed by Stanford set a record for driving autonomously for 131 miles on the unrehearsed road in the desert and the Blue Brain project of 2009 that stimulated brain parts of a rat.

AI Today

The abilities and uses of AI system in today’s settings are limitless. The developments since the turn of the century have led to advances in AI systems especially robots, and there are many of them working in industries. Often automated systems are used to carry out complex activities such as packing in most organizations instead of people. Primarily Li and Du state that AI is used in different areas today including expert systems, computer vision, and medical diagnosis, speech recognition, and Heuristic Classification[7]. 

In expert systems, AI is used to provide answers to existing problems or expunge uncertainties in situations requiring extensive human consolation. The primary use of expert systems is in medical areas with a system such as MYCIN. The heuristic classification involves putting information in specific fixed categories. The approach is mainly used in gadgets such as credit card processing. On the other hand, speech recognition is also another aspect of AI that is gaining popularity[8]. The approach has been adopted in voice recognizing security systems and is also present in mobile phones. Currently, Japan appears to be the leading nation in artificial intelligence with the recent development of a humanoid robot called Kenmore that is the most advanced in the world with the ability to reason and engage people in a conversation.

2. The Degree Of Disruption

The advent of technology has changed various practices that used to be standard in human life. Ideally, the concept of automation has also not made most processes to be automated. Consequently, technology has disrupted the standard procedures in the world. According to Livne, the disruptive aspect of technology has often been enhanced by AI[9]. Ideally, most individuals feel that AI disruption has overly been detrimental though it is still average.

3. Current Versus Future Disruption

Current Disruption

Primarily, AI has been disruptive in the industry as compared to other fields. In this regard, many AI systems have been adopted to work instead of humans thereby leading to massive layoff. An example is in the beverage production industry. Currently, intelligent systems move the syrup and bottles around in most processes and even package the bottles in crates. Even though the approach is cherished because of its efficiency and low-cost advantages, it has disrupted the standard approach to battling where people could participate in specific activities such as packaging, labelling, and even observation of the level of the fluid in a bottle. Another area that has experienced disruption due to the incorporation of AI is security. In this regard, most nations now utilize events such as drones and automatic number plate identifiers to observe people and even arrest law offenders[10]. Even though this is positive to the public, law enforcement officers who have had to adapt to new roles feel that AI has disrupted their usual work schedules.

AI disruption is not always detrimental but also has a positive effect on almost every person at some point. For instance, the transport sector is also facing disruption from AI, especially in the aviation industry. Currently, the autopilot systems rely on complex algorithms to relieve pilots of the difficult tasks of flying planes for long times. The systems have incorporated abilities that help them avoid collisions in the sky and even maintain appropriate conditions in the plane. Similarly, the area of medicine has experienced significant disruption due to AI with many doctors having to learn how to utilize modern machines in their daily schedules to help them offer better and quality medical care.

Future Disruption

Unlike the current disruption of AI that is mostly felt in industry, the future will see AI take over homes, industry, and social settings. Primarily, the increasing focus on Humanoids is likely to lead to successful development of robots that replace humans. The disruptive nature of AI in the future will be fostered by the dropping in prices of technological devices such as computers that are fundamental in developing and operating AI system[11]. Primarily, AI-based system of the future will take over activities such as financial transactions, monitoring of economic trends, industrial operation, military planning, control of transportation, and physical phenomenon prediction. Example of possible AI’s of the future comprises autonomously self-driving cars, home assistant humanoids, and working robots.

Negative Effect of Future AI

Currently, AI is demonstrating significant potential of replacing humans, especially in the labor sector. According to Ferdinand, Iliev, and Glavinov, the US government is convinced that highly development humanoid will be capable of working in low skilled jobs as early as 2025[12]. Moreover, there is a view by the National Intelligent counsel that robotic technologies of the future could be utilized in augmenting human capabilities. Based on these assertions, AI will take over jobs that are currently held by many people. Consequently, it will adversely affect their lifestyle, as they will have no income sources.

Positive Effects of Future AI

One advantage of AI systems is that they are cost effective and have high production efficiency. Therefore, starting with medical care, AI will help in realizing better medical outcomes through systems such as Artificial Intelligence in Medicine (AIM) programs, which is a software tasked with offering 3D images of the heart. Consequently, people will receive better diagnose and treatment. Other benefits of AI will be high industrial production, safer transportation systems as well as increased security.

4. Hype Vs. Reality

The concept of AI has elicited both factual and untrue reactions. Primarily, most hype surrounding AI is based on the possible negative impacts it can cause. Additionally, it emerges from misconceptions about the position of AI in automation. Ideally, most futuristic thoughts about AI are cantered on creating a virtual world that is perfect for everyone. For instance, the virtual reality concept provided by AI enables individuals to move to different parts of the world as they please. Whereas this is possible, the truth is that it is virtual and no actual movement is involved. However, AI utilizes mind stimulating approaches and 3D reconstruction to bring imagines of familiar places and cities close and in a virtual scope.

Another hype about AI is the fear that the humanoids of the future might pose a threat to humans. In this regard, Parkes and Wellman, state that the ability of robots to reason independently could result to harm if they decide to form an alliance against human beings[13]. The hype is encouraged by the superior ability of most humanoids as compared to humans. However, the reality is that the independence that humanoid possess is developed by humans through specific programs and algorithm which can be turned on or off at any moment. Through these programs, humans decide what robots do and can activate or deactivate humanoids at any time. Therefore, the fear is unfounded.

5. Canadian Perspective

The Canadian view of AI is that it is changing every facet of human life from the way people live, play and work. Therefore, it is transformative and can affect national security, transportation, manufacturing, and healthcare delivery[14]. The impact of AI could be significant on Canadian society and economy. For instance, it could lead to targeted marketing, improved prediction of weather, better logistics, and medical treatments. This could raise the national economy to better points. However, on the other hand, AI could also expose the Canadian economy to risks especially the workforce. Primarily, the society will experience poor living conditions due to the loss of jobs because of automation. Moreover, there is fear among Canadians that AI could result in outcomes that are more negative if it is used maliciously.

The government of Canada seems to be interested in AI. For instance, the federal government allocated $125 million in 2016 to AI research through the Pan-Canadian Artificial Intelligence strategy. Moreover, the granting counsel in2018 offered $6 million to call for research focusing on the effects of AI.

6. Personal Perspective

Disruptive technology has always been part of humans from early industrialization period when the textile mills were developed in the 19^th century. The innovation leads to a worker’s movement as many of them feared that they would lose jobs and sources of livelihood. However, today, over 100 years, workers are better than they were before the innovation. On the other hand, even though the innovation was disruptive, it kick-started transformation in agriculture. Based on this example, I feel that disruptive innovation specifically AI is good as it leads to positive transformation. In this regard, as humans are replaced in low skill jobs by AI machines as projected in the future, they will find more and better occupations. Furthermore, the opportunity cost of using AI instead of humans is very low. Meaning that AI results in more benefits and the only disadvantage it presents is the likelihood to affect the working schedules of people. Therefore, it makes sense to use AI as a disruptive technology and realize better outcomes than holding on to humans and endure loses. It is also essential to use the world demographic changes as a concept to encourage AI. For instance, by 2050, the world will have more older people and less young people to offer labor. Therefore, AI could be ideal in supplementing the future labor requirements.

[1] Mariusz. Flasiński, “Symbolic Artificial Intelligence." In Introduction to Artificial Intelligence, pp. 16. Springer, Cham, 2016.

[2] Ibid., 19

[3] George, Zarkadakis. In our own image: Savior or destroyer? The history and future of artificial intelligence. Pegasus Books, (2016): 87

[4] Stuart J., Russell. and Norvig Peter. Artificial intelligence: a modern approach. Malaysia; Pearson Education Limited. (2016). 6

[5] Yang, Lu. "Artificial intelligence: a survey on evolution, models, applications and future trends." Journal of Management Analytics 6, no. 1 (2019): 3

[6] George, Zarkadakis. In our own image: Savior or destroyer? The history and future of artificial intelligence. 93

[7] Yang, Lu. "Artificial intelligence: a survey on evolution, models, applications and future trends." 3

[8] Dillan, Theckedath. 2018. "Understanding Artificial Intelligence – Canadian Perspectives". Hillnotes. https://hillnotes.ca/2018/06/20/understanding-artificial-intelligence-canadian-perspectives/.

[9] Sherry, Wasilow, and Thorpe, Joelle B. "Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Ethics, and the Military: A Canadian Perspective." AI Magazine 40, no. 1 (2019): 38.

[10] Ibid., 41

[11] Stuart J., Russell. and Norvig Peter. Artificial intelligence, 11

[12] Odjakov, Ferdinand, Iliev Andrej, and Glavinov Aleksandar. "Artificial intelligence and use of drones in modern miliтаry operations." International Journal of Science and Arts–IDEA 2, no. 3 (2018): 97-104.

[13] Parkes, David C., and Michael P. Wellman. "Economic reasoning and artificial intelligence." Science 349, no. 6245 (2015): 267-272.

[14] Yunhe, Pan. "Heading toward artificial intelligence 2.0." Engineering 2, no. 4 (2016): 409-413.