QUESTION

Forecasting AMD and Intel 

 JWI 531 Finance II Assignment 3Template

HOW TO USE THIS TEMPLATE:

This is a template and checklist corresponding to your Assignment 3 paper: Forecasting. See below for an explanation of the color-coding in this template:

• All green text includes instructions to support your writing. You should delete all green text before submitting your final paper.
• All blue text indicates areas where you need to replace text with your own information. Replace the blue text with your own words in black.
• Headings and subheadings are written in black, bold type. Keep these in your paper.

TIPS:

• Write in the third person, using “he” or “she” or “they”, or using specific names. Do not use the second person “you”.
• The body of this paper has one-inch margins and uses a professional font (size 10-12); we recommend Arial or Times New Roman fonts.
• The Assignment template is already formatted with all needed specifications like margins, appropriate font, and double spacing.
• Before submitting your paper, use Grammarly to check for punctuation and usage errors and make the required corrections. Then read aloud to edit for tone and flow.
• You should also run your paper through SafeAssign to ensure that it meets the required standards for originality.

FINALIZING YOUR PAPER

Your submission should be a maximum of 4 pages in length. The page count does not include the Cover Page at the beginning and the References page at the end. The final paper that you submit for grading should be in black text only with all remaining green text and blue text removed. 

Assignment 3: Forecasting

Author’s Name

Jack Welch Management Institute

Professor’s Name

JWI 531

Date

Introduction

       An Introduction should be succinct and to the point. Start your Introduction with a general and brief observation about the paper’s topic.  Write a thesis statement, which is the “road map” for your paper – it helps your reader to navigate your work. In your thesis statement, be specific about the major areas you plan to address in your paper. 

       The headings below should guide your introduction, since they identify the topics to be addressed in your paper.  The introduction is not a graded part of your rubric but it helps your reader to understand what your assignment will be about.  We recommend that you write this part of your Introduction after you complete the other sections of your paper.  It only needs to be one paragraph in length.                    

Analysis and Recommendations

       You must answer each of the following questions in your paper. Keep your responses focused on the topic.  Straying off into additional areas, even if they are interesting, will not earn additional marks, and may actually detract from the clarity of your responses.

1. Which metrics/trends are most critical for forecasting future performance and for budgeting? To answer this, you must include an analysis of both past trend performance AND the applicability and reliability of key forecast indicators. In your response, consider:
   1. Which company has the stronger income statement? Explain.
   2. Which company has the stronger cash flows? Explain.
   3. Which company has the stronger operating performance? Explain.

In developing your response, use the three sub-questions (a, b and c) to guide you.  In fact, you may want to draft your answers for these questions before you write your opening.  Your answer to the all three questions and your opening statement should take one or two paragraphs.  Make sure that you explain your rationale for each of three questions.  It is not enough to just name the company and move on.

1. Why are the metrics/trends in the data sets above so critical? How reliable are they as predictors of future performance?

       For the second question, our focus is on the quality and usefulness of the data.  Pay attention to both parts of the question.  Your response must address:

• WHY these metrics/trend are particularly important to forecasting and budgeting – there is little value in overanalyzing trivial metrics
• How consistent the trends have been – generally speaking, the less variance in the trend, the more reliable a predictor it is

       Given that most companies have hundreds of data sets that could be analyzed, explain why these particular data sets are the ones to focus on in forecasting.  Be sure you include references to the analysts’ reports, the 10-Ks, and your course materials.  Your answer should take two paragraphs.

• Based on the data you have analyzed, which metrics would you focus on to improve the performance of the weaker company against the stronger one? Why
  1. How would you do this? What specific financial tools would you apply?  Why?
  2. What would “realistic” improvement look like?
  3. How would you measure success?

       As in previous assignments, the questions now shift from analysis to recommendation.  Your response will require a brief opening statement to explain what metrics you would focus on and why to improve the performance of the weaker company against the stronger one.  Be sure that you stay focused on this.  You do not have to develop a financial strategy for both companies, only the weaker one.  Your answer should, therefore, briefly restate which company you believe has the weaker performance, and then respond to each of the three sub-bullets in relation to that company only. As guidance, see the tips for each question below:

1. Make sure you reference specific financial tools covered in the course and explain how you would use them. Saying something like, “I would reduce operating expenses in order to increase cash flow” is far too vague to have any value as a strategy.
2. Do not make outrageous claims for improvement. You must justify how your actions can drive results.  There must be a clear connection between the financial levers you can pull and the outcomes they will produce.
3. Finally, be clear on how you will define success. It may not always be about growth or profits.  It may be about protecting the company against a major setback.  Make your success metrics as specific and measurable as you can.

4. If you were given the opportunity to join either of these two companies as the new CFO, which one would you pick and why? In considering your answer to this question, the majority of your compensation plan will be tied to the improvements you can help to drive.  Therefore, you should not base your decision on which company is currently performing better, but on which company’s performance – and valuation – has the greatest potential for growth.

       Your answer to this question should take a short paragraph of 3 to 4 sentences.  Stay focused on the core question – which is improvement.  It is fine to pick either company.  There is no right or wrong answer here, but you must be clear about which company you would choose and explain why this is the one you could have the greatest impact on.

References

Use the information below to format your in-text citations correctly. Note how the source number connects each citation with the References list on the last page of your paper. 

For more citation examples and a sample References page, see the Sample Professional Paper and the JWMI Writing Standards Guide. You can find both these documents in the Course Documents menu item in your Blackboard course.

In-Text Citations

Within the body of your paper, when concepts from specific sources are used, a citation with the author’s last name and the number of the citation in your References list is required: e.g., (Welch, 1). This is called an in-text citation. See below for two examples:

  “Leadership is about helping other people grow and succeed” (Welch, 1).

In this example, notice the placement of quotation marks, cited text, and the period after the citation. The number 1 corresponds to the first entry on your References page.

When the reader looks at the References page, they should see the Welch book Winning listed as source number one (1). It is number 1 because it is the first source used in the paper, and throughout the paper this source will continue to be referred to as (1).

If the next source you use in your paper is Bragg, then your citation is (Bragg, 2).  If you then refer to Jack’s ideas again later in the paper, he remains (Welch, 1) because it is the first source used in the paper, and throughout the paper this source will continue to be referred to as (1).

Linking Citations with your References Page

At the end of your paper, include a page with a list of all your references. It must include an entry for every source that you have cited or quoted in your paper.

The format of the references list varies by source type. There are examples of different source types in the sample References page at the end of this document. You may also refer to the Sample Professional Paper and/or the JWMI Writing Standards Guide. You can find both these documents in the Course Documents menu item in your Blackboard course.

Quotations

Originality is an important aspect of graduate writing. To ensure original thinking and avoid plagiarism, you should keep direct quotation to a minimum. Generally, keep your quotes to 25 words or less, and no more than 1-2 sentences.  See below for an example of a direct quotation:

“Leadership is about helping other people grow and succeed” (Welch, 1).

In this example, notice the placement of quotation marks, cited text, and the period after the citation. The number 1 corresponds to the first entry on our References page.

Paraphrasing

When you paraphrase, you put the information from another writer in your own words. This is much preferable to quoting, as it shows your understanding of the material.  In this case, you should use in-text citation, but quotation marks are not required. See below for an example of paraphrasing:

In his Rule 3, Welch says that strong leaders display an impression of vitality and confidence (1).

Since the author’s name was used in the sentence, we do not need to include it again in the parentheses, so we just provide the Reference number, which is (1).

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