Global politics

Answer

4. 4. To what extent will China’s rise destabilize the existing international system created by the West?

China’s Rise

China’s rise refers to the rapid growth of the People’s Republic of China in the realms of military power, its economy as well as in technology. In the recent past has witnessed a considerable economic growth. According to Ikenberry (2008), the size of China's economy has quadrupled since the market reforms in the late 1970s were launched. By considering a number of other factors such as its geographical location and the countries statecraft, the economy of China is likely to double again. Unfortunately, this rise has fashioned a significant debate in the international politics which a majority of scholars believing that the rise will undoubtedly impact on the country’s economic, military and political future.  As the scholar indicates, the China’s rise does not only give the country the capacity to support a double-digit increase in military spending for the next 25 years, but also the ability to build a military force that can definitely ensure China gains dominance against her largest and immediate neighbors such as Russia, Japan and India and eventually resulting into global hegemony.  On the other hand, other scholars are on the view that the rise is a cause for anxiety and a recipe for conflict. For instance, Bräutigam & Xiaoyang(2012) observes that the growing economic power coupled with the rise in military might ripens the nation ready for conflict. This essay aims at assessing the extent at which the rise is likely to disrupt the present international system that had been formed by the west.

Over the past few decades, journalists, military thinkers as well as policymakers have often wondered what the rapid rise of China would lead to. Presently, the United States is at the top of the world with regard to both economic and military prowess. According to Nye (2010), the United States’ gross domestic product (GDP), as well as its Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), is the highest in the world. Besides, it has the strongest military power as evidenced by the fact that it currently occupies two countries, Iraq and Afghanistan. Additionally, the U.S. has been heavily involved in the enforcement of the no-fly-zone in Libya. According to the scholars, the might of the U.S military is also evidenced by the fact that it has over five hundred military bases around the world with its Air Force maintaining unquestionable superiority over global airspace. What is more, the U.S Navy is the major force in almost every ocean where it has placed safe shipping lanes.

On the other hand, the rise People’s Republic of China is threatening to alter the power balance in ways that may challenge the United States’ economic supremacy. After the economic reforms of the 1970s, China’s economy has been growing at a very high rate. As Brooks & Wohlforth (2016) indicates, China is currently ranking second to the United States in terms of foreign investment. Additionally, the country’s export growth rate is almost three times as strong when compared to the world’s average.   Similarly, China’s military might is equally on the rise. According to the scholar, China’s rising military prowess coupled with its economic might acts as tools that give it a huge diplomatic power with the capacity to enable it to be recognized in international affairs just the same level as that of the United States.

 The rise of China has been viewed by a majority of scholars as a threat. For instance, Mearsheimer (2010), observes that China is expected to first pursue regional supremacy by ensuring that it becomes so powerful that no other nation in Asia can threaten it. China had started expressing its interest in becoming the world leader as early as the 1950s when the country sponsored the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence.  As Richardson (2010), observes this became the foundation of the PRCs new leadership role. Towards the 1960s, China had become not only a self-declared leader of developing countries but also started to strengthen its ties with a majority of the countries worldwide. As the scholar indicates, Beijing supplied aid to African countries in forms of helping in a variety of constructions such as railways, dams, spotters, and schools as well as general infrastructure. In this regard, the scholars observe that China's contributions and aid to the third world are more than that of the World Bank. Presently, China continues to give its support to the third world nations without placing any demands for the reformation of their economic and political structures like the Western demands. This has enabled the People’s Republic of China to establish even stronger ties with the third world countries even as they reciprocate allegiance so as to continue receiving the support (Richardson, 2010).

In addition to China's economic ties with third world countries, the Republic of China also initiated economic ties with Australia especially after China became the chief importer of uranium, iron, and manganese from Australia. It is believed that these economic ties yielded diplomatic benefits. For instance Minyue, (2006), indicates that the Australian government did not hesitate to inform the United States that its Department of Defense could not assume its backing for military activities that the United States may take part in against Taiwan even though Australia had initially been supporting the U.S led war on terror.  I deed, china rise has dramatically impacted on the United States’ ability to fully influence international matters. According to the report released by Goldman in the year 2001, that examined the significance of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) of coming together as an economic bloc as given by Fourcade (2013), It is projected that merged BRIC markets could rapidly grow to become larger than that of the G-6 by the end of 2039. Also, according to the first summit held by the four BRIC nations in the year 2009, it was agreed that there was the need for a multipolar world order as well as the rejection of the United States’ supremacy.

Presently, a majority of Chinese intellectuals view China’s hierarchical world as the solution to most of the problems facing the world today. This is evidenced by the fact that they view Chinese culture is seen as a superior culture with a majority of the scholars taking upon themselves to spread Chinese language, values as well as its culture not only within the Asian continent but to the world at large. As Mearsheimer (2010) indicates, with the spreading western values as a result of globalization, China will welcome the new technologies, democracy as well as various organization techniques. However, China will reject practices such as cosmopolitan institutions that the west encourages nations to follow. Instead, China will be likely to present visions in regards to world order and peace that will be in no doubt contrary to the vision of the west (Mearsheimer 2010).

Studies also reveal that the United States continues to show signs of domestic decline by lagging behind in a number of ways. Right from the early 1990s, the United States had moved to position seventeen in regard to public spending on education (Brooks & Wohlforth, 2016). Similarly, the scholars observe that, even though the country boasted of being in the first place in providing compulsory education, it still ranked eighteenth on assessing the ability of its education in meeting the demands of a competitive economy.  China, on the other hand, seems to be overtaking the United States in scientific output. In accordance with the Royal Society of the UK, the Chinese scientists through funding from the central government are publishing more internationally accepted scientific research articles which are cited more often (Marginson, 2011).  Additionally, the Royal Society of UK projects that by 2020, Research articles and journals by the Chinese scientists will be cited 10 percent more often in scientific literature as opposed to their American counterparts. What is more, the United States also stands at position six in regard to higher education enrollment and assumes position eleven in terms of research and development (Marginson, 2011).

The impacts of the China’s rise has been a major concern among political theorists with a majority of them viewing it as a major threat both to the stability of its Asian neighbors and the western countries. For instance, Bräutigam, & Xiaoyang (2012), observes that China is mimicking America in a variety of ways and therefore likely to emerge as not only the largest but also the greatest and most powerful state in Asia. According to the scholar, the nation is already seeking for a more assertive military, economic and political roles in the region and is already challenging the current dominance of the United States in the region. These sentiments are in line with those of Mearsheimer (2010) who indicated that a powerful China is likely to consider pushing the United States from Asia-Pacific just the same way the United States had managed to remove the great powers of the European from the western hemisphere in the late 19^th century.

Indeed, China rise is likely to destabilize the already existing international system a great deal. This is because realist theories often emphasize that emerging powers habitually tend to destabilize global order and disrupt various fragile balances (Breslin 2010).  According to the scholar, this is because the rising to power is in most cases not welcomed since global politics has always been a contest for power among states. According to realists, a state’s power is primarily measured based on its military capacity. And therefore, China might improve its might by engaging in war. As a prominent realist, Mearsheimer (2010) identifies that all great nations possess some degree of offensive military capability and that no any other nation can know the future intentions of another nation with certainty. According to the scholar, China’s rise will never be peaceful, this is because, as China continues to realize an impressive economic growth for the next few decades, it is likely to engage the United States in heavy security competition in a way that can heighten the potential for war.

The potential to destabilize the already existing international system by the rising China is also evidenced by Mearsheimer (2010) when he suggests that, mighty states often attempt to establish control in their own regions while at the same time ensure that there is no other power dominating another region. As the offensive realist observes, the aim of every powerful nation is to ensure it maximizes its share of world power before eventually dominating the whole system. Since the United States has the tendency of not tolerating peer competitors but to remain the world’s regional hegemon, it will devise ways of containing and weakening China so as to make it incapable of dominating Asia. Certainly, this competitive interactions are likely to result in greater instability. As Glaser (2011) describes, East Asia region is already characterized by major shifts in regard to power balancing due to economic, political and cultural heterogeneity. What is more, the scholar postulates that the security dilemma theory indicates that in the event that exists an uncertain and anarchic international system, then mistrust is likely to exist between two or more possible adversaries prompting them to take precautionary and defensive measures leading to more instability. 

However, there are some scholars who believe that China’s rise may not impact the world order that has been created by the west in any way. For instance, Glaser (2011), observes that China does not have the will to lead as opposed to the United States that possesses both the will and the capacity to lead the world. Similarly, the scholar indicates that China does not have the ability for being the hegemon. According to the scholar, this is because its geographical location does not adequately provide it with a surplus security in terms of dominating in production, capital, control of global market and access to natural resources.