Threat of an earthquake to San Francisco, California (San Andreas Fault)

Answer

Threat of an earthquake to San Francisco, California (San Andreas Fault)

            Emergency management is not only an essential practice but an indispensable concept in any place where people live or interact including houses, homes, schools, churches, business premises, factories, streets, roads, conference facilities or recreational facilities, like beaches or parks. Emergency management is a concept of handling risks and risk prevention when unforeseen events occur which pose danger or disturbance and therefore include a range of activities such as preparation for emergency, response to emergency, recovery form emergency and mitigation where possible  (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017). Although many people view emergency management as a government function, it is not limited to the government, but equally important for households, institutions, businesses and even the general public. In the US, the federal government has the responsibility of emergency management and is thus expected to preside over managing emergency cases like, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, wildfires, road accidents, fire outbreaks, terrorism, hazardous materials spillage and disease outbreak like in the case of Covid-19 global pandemic. This assignment focuses on threats of an earthquake to San Francisco, California (San Andreas Fault) within the scope of emergency response.

History and Prediction of Earthquake to San Francisco, California (San Andreas Fault)

            San Francisco experienced its first earthquake on April 18, 1906 at San Andreas Fault. It raptured northernmost 296 miles of the San Andreas Fault from the Northwest of San Bautista to the triple junction Cape Mendocino. It caused large horizontal displacements. The earthquake was characterized by violent shaking which lasted for about 60 seconds. It was felt as far as Southern Oregon, to the South of Los Angeles and inland as far as central Nevada. Along the line of rapture, Modified Mercalli Intensities of VII to IX were measured and extended to over 80 km inland from the fault line (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017). It was the reported that over 700 deaths occurred, fire spawned San Francisco (more than 4.7 square mile), and other severe damages to houses, and roads were recorded (Lawson, 1908). Gladys Hansen and Emmet Condon however estimated that over 3,000 lives were lost to the earthquake. 225,000 people were left homeless, and about 28,000 buildings were severely damaged. Monetary wise, over 400 million was lost (Ellsworth, et al., 1981). The bay area has also experienced other significant earthquakes such as the 1838 Peninsula Segment of the San Andreas (M - 7), the 1868 Southern Hayward fault (M-7) and the 1989 Loma Prieta (M-6.9), the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (114,000 residential and commercial buildings were damaged, 72 lives were lost, and $25 billion was lost) (NOAA, 1972).

Hazards

            A hazard is a source of danger that can lead to emergency or disaster that post threat to human life, animal life, integrity of residential or commercial building, and other infrastructural amenities. Disasters resulting from hazards carry with them different levels of risks of death, destruction, damage, disruption and stoppage. Consequently, it is essential that a crisis response system be established to manage hazards, the resulting or possible disasters depending the type and magnitude of risk they pose. Important to note is that response must be suitable and as such it is imperative to identify a hazard and associated disaster and risks before preparation and planning can be done towards mitigation. FEMA identifies many hazards about which proper management system must be established and implemented as situation dictate. Among the hazards recognized by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) include Floods, Hurricanes, Storm surges, Tornadoes, Wildfires, Landslides, Tsunamis, Volcanic eruptions, Thunderstorms and Earthquake among others. Of specific interest in this case is Earthquakes.

            An Earthquake is an abrupt and rapid shaking of the earth or section of the earth caused by the breaking and shifting of the bedrocks beneath the surface of the earth (NOAA, 1972). When earthquake occurs, it can cause collapse to buildings bridges, disruption of gas and electric transmission system, outbreak of fires, landslides, flash floods, avalanches, and destructive ocean waves like tsunamis depending on the magnitude. San Francisco California is a prone location for occurrence of major earthquakes in the US. In fact most of the earthquakes which occurred in the US between 1987 and 1997 all took place in California (4 in North California and 2 in South California). Table 1 below gives some of the examples of major earthquakes.

Table 1 Estimated Earthquake Losses, 1987-1997

Source: (NOAA, 1972)

            At San Andreas Fault Zone (SAFZ) is of particular interest with regards to the risk of earthquake. Scientist established that SAFZ started shifting about 28-30 million years ago and has since horizontally slipped through about 350km. SAFT has recorded some of the major and devastating earthquakes in the US and the world. Most notable are the 1857 and 1906. The two were of matched magnitude. Other earthquakes have also occurred along the SAFZ on May 18, 1940 (magnitude 7.1) at Imperial Valley, November 1979, Hayward Faulty earthquake in 1836, and 1868 and another SAFZ in 1838. Generally thousands of other small earthquakes occur in California annually but it has never been possible to predict the magnitude of the quakes (NOAA, 1972; Toppozada, et al., 1988).

            While occurrence of large earthquakes in the SAFZ, it should be noted that frequent quakes occurs of less significant effects. Devastating earthquakes in the SAFZ region have been seen to occur in interval of more 100 years in the San Francisco Bay (the last quake occurs in 1906). On the Southern San Andreas Fault, geologic studies have noted that large earthquakes have occurs at about 150 years intervals (Schulz & Wallace, 2016).  It is sensible to note that occurrence of minor earthquakes of less devastating magnitude could be a reason to be prepared for emergency of worst scenarios. The good news is that earthquakes of violent magnitude are preceded by increased seismicity for a number of years. Such seismicity is characterized with foreshocks of magnitude 5 along the fault line.  If these intervals of occurrence of high magnitude earthquakes is anything to go by (there is no reason to ignore), then it is very critical that more preparation and planning should be in place to respond in the event such disaster occur. Earthquakes can therefore occur anytime because 100 years have since elapsed and 150 year interval is approaching (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (1990). More vigilance is indispensable.

Mitigation and Planning Considerations 

            Mitigation is a concept of lowering or eliminating the risks and impacts of a disaster which results from hazards such as earthquake (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017). Although mitigation does not necessary mean emergency management, it is parts of the recovery phase of emergency management. In real sense, mitigation is a recovery function of emergency management. Mitigation is therefore a multiagency function which requires not only participation and support of a broad spectrum of players but need to follow Principles of Mitigation. The National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) supports and manages of earthquake through mitigation programs. The major aim of NEHRP included improving understanding, characterization and prediction of hazard (NOAA, 1972). Mitigation of earthquakes and any other hazard and disaster thus need the harmonious coordination of the following concepts.

Hazard Identification and Mapping

            It is essential to identify and characterize in terms of magnitude of risk and disaster associated with its occurrence. Accurate prediction of the occurrence and magnitude of risk and disaster associated with earthquake. It important however to recognize that earthquakes are violent and causes loss of life, damages to property, buildings, and infrastructures such as pipelines, roads, bridges, and electric lines. It’s also imperative to locate the areas which in this case are the San Francisco, California along the San Andreas Fault as far as Eureka, southward to Salina, Imperial Valley, Hayward fault and San Juan Bautista among other places. It’s slightly over 100 year’s interval which is predicted since 1906, and there, in terms of time, an earthquake should be expected anytime. More Geological surveys (USGS) and HAZUS should thus be effected to enhance prediction (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017).

Design and Construction Application

            Houses and structures should be designed and built with the features which would minimize impacts of earthquakes. Some legislation have been established for example The Los Angeles seismic retrofit ordinance and earth quake resistance standards referenced in in the international Building Code (IBC) to help with design and constructions and restoration of damages in the event an earthquake occurs (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017).

Land-Use Planning

            Land-use planning and ordinances promotes earthquake risk reduction particularly along the San Andreas Fault. The Alquist-Priola Act in California limits infrastructural development along the fault lines prone to earthquakes. This helps with reducing the exposure of people, property, buildings and infrastructural facilities to risk of damage and losses when earthquake occurs (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017).

Financial Incentives

            The government through FEMA has helped with creation of special tax assessment, passage of tax increase and bonds to pay for mitigation, assistance with those who need relocation. Additionally, Funding from the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) is available to support people would want to acquire property in less risky places, and relocate to those place. There are other federal programs like Small Business Administration (SBA) and Economic Development Administration which give financial aides to help with mitigation (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017).

Insurance

            Although the federal Governments have not implemented the NFIP, insurance cover should be formulated for risk of earthquake to help distribute burden trough time. An insurance cover would ensure that the government reduces its burden of compensation when destructive earthquake occurs.

 Community Planning and Preparedness Program

            Planning and preparedness are vital segments of emergency management. Successful emergency management requires that planning and preparedness is comprehensive such that local responders know what they ought to do in the event an earthquake occurs. To enhance planning and preparedness, the National Incident management System (NIMS) was created. NIMS provides capacity to local, state, federal and other agencies to work in coordination more efficiently and effectively. NIMS works under FEMA which has the responsibility to educate the general public about disaster awareness and preparedness. A community preparedness program thus involves four basic steps (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017):

            Disaster Profiling: - The community and all the responder must find out the types of disaster that are most likely to occur at a certain place. This can be done through local emergency management or the American Red Cross

            Family Disaster Plan: - All family members must know and appreciate their responsibilities when an earthquake strikes and thus be ready

            Action: - All members of the community at family level and community level should know the specific activities such as posting emergency telephone numbers, location of escape routes, assembling of disaster supply kits, installing earth tremor detectors and CPR first aid.

            Practice and Maintenance of Family Disaster Plan: - Families should adopt preparedness culture so that it is practices not only for earthquakes but for other disasters as well.

            Besides preparedness at family levels, timely and accurate communication to the practiced between the locals, the state, the federal government and the volunteers. The communication should include warnings, instructions, procedures and reports on earthquake disasters. Communication helps in coordination, cooperation, and collaboration between all the stakeholders.

Principles of Response & Recovery

            Response is the process of providing the public with notification, warning, evacuation and situation report of ongoing disaster. Recovery on the other hand is a phase of mitigation which aims at providing disaster information to individuals and communities on how they can register for and access disaster relief. These two may seem not very practical because occurrence of destructive earth quake is rare but then since no body know with any acuity the time of its occurrence.  Bothe Response and recovery are communication function towards disaster. For effective and efficient response and recovery, there is need for timely and accurate information to the general public about the disaster. To achieve this, regular communication with the public and the media is indispensable. Response and Recovery also call for factors such as staff support through public affairs officers, joint information center, community relations, and suitable technology for communication such as the internet, the recovery channel, cable television, the Recovery Times, FEMAFAX/Spectrafax, The FEMA Radio Network, and the FEMA Automatic Internet Emergency News and Situation Report Distribution Services. A coordinated combination of all these can enhance response and recovery during earthquake (Bullock, Haddow, & Coppola, 2017).

            In conclusion, emergency management of earthquakes is technical but vital. Occurrence of destructive earthquake is rare but following the seismic and geologic surveys, the time interval of the occurrence of violent and fatal earthquake at San Andreas Fault, it is more likely to occur any time in the near future. The 100 years interval for severe earthquake at San Andreas Fault (San Francisco; California) has elapsed since the last devastating earthquake of 1906. It is more critical that mitigation, community planning and preparedness for response and recovery be given total attention.